Category VII Cycling

The World Championship Road Race this weekend is expected to be a lottery. By that they mean that whoever can pick themselves up from the massive pile-up in the final U-Turn, heft their mangled wreck of a bike on their mangled wreck of a shoulder, and limp, stagger, and crawl, across the finish line will be rewarded with a sterile rainbow jersey, ready to be cut into strips to bandage their wounds.

Assuming the dire predictions don’t come to pass, the race will likely be decided by Alessandro Pettachi, Tom Boonen, and Robbie McEwen. And those are my picks, in that order to win.

Pettachi has to be considered the overwhelming favorite. After all, he’s widely – if not universally – considered the best sprinter in the pro peloton. But there might be a concern that after riding the Vuelta – and winning five stages, including the final ride on the World’s course – he may have peaked too soon, or over exerted himself. I think that’s unlikely, and in sharp contrast to the approaches taken by McEwen and Boonen, I give the edge to Pettachi because he chose to race himself – rather than train himself – into form.

And while I realize that he is riding for the infamous Squadr Azzuri, and they have a long and splendid history of racing themselves into the ground at the World’s, I also think his national team gives him a slight edge over the other two expected main protagonists. Consider for a moment the Spanish. The race has to seem somewhat a letdown to them, seeing as how their favorite son (at least for this weekend) Oscar Friere will not be able to defend his jersey or contest a record fourth world championship. Their response will likely to be to send their stable of attacking riders – including Valverde, Flecha, and Periero – up the road at every opportunity. In this case Paolo Bettini could become a huge ally – as opposed to a huge rival – for Pettachi. The Italians won’t need to chase down every potential winning break. Only ensure that the Cricket covers it. This should spare Pettachi and his lead out boys the stress of too much work in the mid part of the race, allowing them to organize the finale if and when any potential breaks come back.

And if the break goes away with Bettini, Pettachi gets lauded as the perfect teammate. Unless he chases him down. Which I’m not saying won’t happen. Because it’s the Italian squad.

In a similar vein, Boonen is bringing a lot to the table. He could probably beat Pettachi in a sprint on any given day – though he wasn’t overly successful at the Vuelta – but most importantly, he could go with any dangerous breaks himself. Should he work his own way into a break that stays clear, it’s unlikely anyone else could take him in the finish. And as he showed at Flanders, if he’s outnumbered, he’s not averse to putting in the attack on his own, before the other teams have a chance to even try and work him over.

Lastly, I would rank McEwen. He has to fancy his own chances pretty highly. His much-vaunted bike handling skills – apparently a reference to being able to pop a wheelie across the line when you finish with the laughing group – have a lot of commentators picking him first through the U-Turn. If only the finish line were there… More significantly, McEwen did show Pettachi to the lower rungs of the victory podium three times in the Giro. But then again, what have you done for me lately. Or to put more of a point on it, when was the last time you turned the pedals in anger. If there is a question about Pettachi peaking too early, there is a bigger question for me about McEwen’s preparation and absence from the top races in recent weeks. Furthermore, McEwen’s usual mates at Davitamon-Lotto, if they’re in Madrid, will be looking to put Boonen on Ale-Jet’s wheel, not Robbie. And even if they have the three-time world time trial champion in their ranks, a ticket on the Aussie train for Madrid likely won’t be the most highly-sought.

And Erik Zabel will come in second.